Uncertainty and forecasting local health professional shortages

We used a utilization-based scenario-forecasting model toassess the evidence for current and future imbalances between health professional supply and demand in Memphis-Shelby County, Tennessee. The scenario-forecasting model, based on qualitativeinformation collected from local health industry leaders, was shaped and limited by the types of current local area data available. This paper discusses methods that may prove useful to applied demographers making forecasts, given uncertain system change and poor data.