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Comparative probability for conditional events: A new look through coherence
Authors:Giulianella Coletti  Angelo Gilio  Romano Scozzafava
Institution:(1) Dipartimento di Matematica, Università, Via Vanvitelli 1, 06100 Perugia, Italy;(2) Dipartimento di Metodi e Modelli Matematici, Università lsquoLa Sapienzarsquo, Via A. Scarpa 16, 00161 Rome, Italy
Abstract:We study, from the standpoint of coherence, comparative probabilities on an arbitrary familyE of conditional events. Given a binary relation les·, coherence conditions on les· are related to de Finetti's coherent betting system: we consider their connections to the usual properties of comparative probability and to the possibility of numerical representations of les·. In this context, the numerical reference frame is that of de Finetti's coherent subjective conditional probability, which is not introduced (as in Kolmogoroff's approach) through a ratio between probability measures.Another relevant feature of our approach is that the family & need not have any particular algebraic structure, so that the ordering can be initially given for a few conditional events of interest and then possibly extended by a step-by-step procedure, preserving coherence.
Keywords:conditional events  comparative probability  coherence  management of uncertainty
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