云南省房地产业对经济增长和消费水平的影响分析

从房地产业对经济增长、消费水平的影响出发,通过建立向量自回归模型,应用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数,分析了云南省房地产业对经济增长和消费水平的影响。分析结果表明：一是房地产开发投资与GDP具有双向因果关系,当房地产开发投资增长1%时,GDP将增长0.53个百分点,且1单位的房地产开发投资冲击对经济增长的影响在第三季度时达到最大,之后缓慢衰减;二是云南省的消费水平具有较强的惯性,房价上涨的财富效应显著,当房价上涨1%时,消费增长1.24个百分点,且1单位的房价冲击对消费水平的影响在第三季度最大,之后迅速衰减并趋于零。

Analysis of the Real Estate Industry S Influence on the Economic Growth and Consumption Level in Yunnan Province

By establishing vector autoregression model, employing Johansen＇s cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response function, this paper analyzes the influence of the real estate industry on the economic growth and the consumption level in Yunnan province. The result shows that, （ 1 ） there are two - way causality between the investment in real estate development and GDP, when real estate investment grows by 1%, GDP will grow by 0.53% , and 1 unit of investment in real estate will affect the economic growth ,and a- chieve maximum impact in the third quarter. Later this effect will slowly decay; （2） as the consumption level in Yunnan province has strong inertia, wealth effect of the rising house prices is significant. When house price ri- ses by 1% , consumption will increase by 1.24%, and the maximum impact on consumption level of 1 unit of house price is achieved in the third quarter. Then the impact will immediately attenuate and to zero.