Modelling police success in catching burglars in the act |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Manufacturing and Mechanical Engineering, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK;2. School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK;1. AP-HP, Hôpital Jean-Verdier, Department of Forensic Medicine, 93140 Bondy, France;2. IRIS - Institut de recherches interdisciplinaires sur les enjeux sociaux (INSERM, CNRS, EHESS, Université Paris 13, UMR 8156-723), 93 100 Bobigny, France;3. Paris 13 University, Sorbonne Paris Cite, Educations and Health Practices Laboratory (LEPS), (EA 3412), UFR SMBH, F-93017 Bobigny, France;1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Tulsa, 800 South Tucker Drive, Tulsa, OK 74104, USA;2. Thermal Science Department, University of Los Andes, Mérida, Mérida 5101, Venezuela;3. Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), Dresden, Saxony 01328, Germany;1. Departments of Criminal Justice and Sociology, Indiana University-Bloomington, 302 Sycamore Hall, Bloomington, IN 47405, United States;2. Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice, University of Arkansas, 525 Old Main, Fayetteville, AR 72701, United States |
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| Abstract: | This paper is concerned with determining which factors influence the chances of the police catching the domestic burglar in the act. It is based on a 6-month study of ‘in progress’ burglary,1 funded by the UK Home Office’s Policing and Crime Reducing Unit. Data were collected from the police records for the whole of a Regional Police Force. Binary regression models are developed which indicate the relative importance of individual burglary characteristics and the nature of the police response in determining the chance of a successful arrest at, or near, the crime-scene. Adjustments to the resourcing and organisation of police patrolling in order to improve capture rates are likely to prove successful only where burglary circumstances are favourable. |
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