The effects of age structure on the labor force and retirement in China |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Sociology, Waters Hall Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA;1. Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Sweden;2. Centre for Economic Demography and Department of Economic History, Lund University, Sweden;3. IZA, Germany;4. Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London, United Kingdom;1. Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, 195 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511, United States;2. University of Wyoming, Department of Economics and Finance, 1000 E, University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071, United States;1. Aix Marseille University (Aix Marseille School of Economics, CNRS & EHESS), Château Lafarge, Route des Milles, 13290 Les Milles Aix-en-Provence, France;2. Département des Sciences Economiques, ESG UQAM, Université du Québec à Montréal, PO Box 8888 Downtown Station, Montreal, QC H3C 3P8, Canada;1. Simon Fraser University, Canada;2. London School of Economics and Political Science, UK |
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| Abstract: | What are the current and future trends in age structure in China as it relates to labor force and retirement? And, what is the impact of the one-child policy on these trends? A trend analysis identifies that as the parents of the one-child family age, China will have an older population, proportionately, with a smaller middle-aged population to support them in the traditional manner, unlike previous generations. A burden will be placed on the working age population as the one-child generation will have to help support two parents if single, and four parents if married, particularly in urban areas. This will also impact rural areas where formal systems of elderly support are not yet fully developed. In terms of labor resources, the elderly may be better supported in old age if they stay in the labor force for a longer period. However, younger workers need employment, while the old must work to offset the lack of formal support, and the potential decline in intergenerational family support due to the changing age-structure. The challenge facing policy-makers is to bring about a balance between employment patterns and support between generations. |
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