Dynamic Bayesian forecasting of AFL match results using the Skellam distribution |
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| Authors: | A A Manderson K Murray B A Turlach |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Mathematics and Statistics (M019), University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia;2. School of Population and Global Health (M431), University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia;3. Centre for Applied Statistics (M019), University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia |
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| Abstract: | The scoring and defensive abilities of Australian Rules Football teams change over time as a result of evolving player rosters, tactics and other management factors. We develop a dynamic model based on the Poisson difference (Skellam) distribution which simultaneously models the two different point scoring mechanisms in Australian Rules Football, the motivation for which comes from work on predicting outcomes in soccer matches. Our model is developed in a Bayesian framework and is fitted using the Stan modelling language. Model validation is performed on the 2015 Australian Football league (AFL) home and away season. |
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| Keywords: | Australian rules football Bayesian hierarchical models dynamic models Skellam
Stan
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