论突发事件对国家形象维护的影响——以汶川地震为例

突发事件往往有着深刻的舆情影响力，而不同类型事件的舆情影响力又存在一定的差异。已有相关研究多集中于总体属性分析方面，而分类别研究成果相对较少，因此，从事件分类维度去研究突发事件舆情影响力及其主要驱动因素具有较为显著的理论意义和应用价值。基于综合性、及时性、全面性、科学性等原则，选取2022年1—9月发生的40个典型突发事件，并对其进行归类比较，探析不同类型事件的共性和差异，同时阐释了突发事件的9类舆情影响效应，运用VIKOR法对40个典型事件的舆情影响力进行评价以及运用因子分析法探讨其主要驱动因素。研究发现：一是不同类别事件的舆情影响力存在一定的差异，这是多种因素综合作用的结果。例如，军事安全类、国际安全类、疫情安全类、公众安全类和大型自然安全类事件的舆情影响力往往较大，消防安全类与交通安全类事件的舆情影响力则相对较小。二是微博传播间接效应、情感导向效应、权威发酵效应、传播层级效应是突发事件舆情影响力的关键驱动因素。

Risk assessment of earthquake network public opinion based on global search BP neural network

The occurrence of emergencies often has a profound public opinion influence, but the public opinion influence of different types of events varies to some extent. Previous studies mainly focus on the analysis of overall attributes of public opinion influence, while there are relatively fewer research results on its classification. So it is of great theoretical significance and practical value to study the public opinion influence of emergencies and its main driving factors from the dimension of event classification. Based on the principles of comprehensiveness, timeliness, totality and scientificity, the paper selects 40 typical emergencies from January to September 2022, classifies and compares them to analyze the commonalities and differences of different types of events, and interprets the nine types of public opinion effects of emergencies. In addition, it evaluates the public opinion influence of 40 typical events by using the VIKOR method, and explores its main driving factors by using factor analysis. The study finds that there are differences in the influence of public opinion on different categories of events, which result from a combination of factors. For instance, military security, international security, epidemic security, public security, and large-scale natural security events tend to have a larger influence on public opinion, while fire safety and transportation safety events have a relatively smaller influence. Additionally, the study identifies that the indirect effect of microblog communication, the emotion-oriented effect, the authority fermentation effect, and the communication hierarchy effect are key driving factors for the influence of public opinion on emergencies.