论2008年美国总统选举与当今美国政治和社会文化生态

以2008年美国总统大选为切入点,从反恐与伊拉克战争、经济与贸易、非法移民问题以及教育、司法、传媒等角度,着眼此次美国总统选举的选情,分析其背后错综复杂的政治经济利益、文化冲撞与交锋,前瞻美国社会的变迁。笔者认为,近年来美国政治和社会经历了少有的变革,政治经济上的失策及大众的不安造成了美国社会的巨大分化与不稳定。由此带来的美国内外政策和全球战略的重大调整与转变必将在此次美国总统选举的结果中得到体现和印证。它们将在很大程度上决定今后十年美国内政外交的走势,对美国自身的力量涨落、政策取向和国际格局带来重大和深远的影响。

The 2008 American Presidential Election and the Latest American Political-Sociocultural Ecology

The article is intended to observe and examine the 2008 American presidential election,and the major candidates and their policies,analyze the complex interconnections and conflicts of different political-economic interests and clashes of cultures and values behind,and predict and envision present and prospective transformations in American society.The author argues that accompanied by extraordinary internal and external situations,the American politics and society have undergone significant and consequential changes in recent years.One of the important outcomes is the patent and precipitous decline of Conservatism which has played a dominant role in the national politics and socio-intellectual movement in the previous decade as a vociferous and established voice.The grave diminution of its power and prestige,and the concomitant resurgence of Liberal big-government ideas and Leftist-Liberal social currents,together with the predictable major readjustment and transformation in American domestic and foreign policies and its global strategy will all be shown in the upcoming presidential election.All these will act to decide the ways and trends of the domestic and foreign policies of America in the years to come,and will produce substantial and lasting influences on the vicissitudes of American politics,the reorientation of American policy,and the shift of international power structure.