江西农村居民消费行为特征动态分析

依据江西农村居民消费支出份额的时间序列特点,通过对近乎理想的需求系统(AIDS)模型的修正,利用建立的联立方程的参数估计结果,对江西农村居民消费行为进行动态分析得出:农村居民抵御意外事件发生的经济能力还相当弱;在衣着消费支出上处于蓄势待发阶段,追求时尚倾向越来越明显;使用高档消费品的环境在江西广大农村还没有形成,家用设备、用品的功能发挥有限,只能当作高档次的“劣质品”;交通通讯的消费潜力巨大;文教娱乐用品及服务的消费支出必将成为江西农民的第二大消费支出,有利于农村劳动力素质的提高和农村科学文化教育事业的发展;医疗保健仍然是典型的“吉芬商品”,但这种困苦状态很快就会大有改变。

A Dynamic Analysis of the Features of Farmers' Consumer Behavior of Jiangxi Province

Based on the time series characteristics of the expense share of rural residents in Jiangxi,the paper revises the Almost Ideal Demand System(AIDS) model.Then,using the estimation result of simultaneous equation parameter,it gives a dynamic analysis of consumer behaviors of Jiangxi's countryside inhabitants and concludes that the countryside inhabitants' capacity to resist accidents remains weak,that their expenses in clothing are increasing as more and more people pursuit fashion,that the environment of consuming the upscale consumables has not been formed in general in the countryside so that the functions of household appliances have not been fully displayed,that the expense potential of transportation and communication is huge,that expenses in culture,education and entertainment will become the second biggest expense for farmers which is advantageous in enhancing the quality of the rural labor force and the development of science and education in the countryside,and that the medical health care is still a typical "Giffen Commodity",but this poverty-stricken condition is expected to be improved soon.