同盟解体的研究:回顾与评析

本文对国际关系领域已有的同盟解体研究情况进行了全面回顾和批评,认为当前有关同盟解体主要有五种解释路径,"目标实现说"认为同盟目标实现后同盟就会解体,"同盟类型说"认为进攻性同盟、对称同盟和非制度化同盟更容易解体,"国家制度说"则认为民主国家同盟更容易维持,而"国内政治说"认为国内体制变化、人口代际更替以及意识形态分歧会导致同盟解体,"军备同盟效用比较说"认为同盟解体与否与军备同盟之间的效用比较有关。本文详细分析了这五种解释的理论逻辑及其不足,并提出了未来进一步推进同盟解体理论构建的研究路径。

The Studies of Alliance Dissolution:A Critical Review

This paper first makes a comprehensive and critical review of alliance dissolution studies in international relations,and summarizes five explanations to alliance dissolution.According to the " mission accomplishment explanation ",alliance will disintegrate after alliance members achieve the goal they set for the alliance;" alliance types explanation " suggests that offensive,symmetrical and non-institutionalized alliances prone to dissolve;" members’regime types explanation " argues that alliances between democracies are easier to endure;while " internal politics explanation " proposes that regime change,demographic and generational changes and ideological divisions will cause alliance to collapse;" arms-allies utility explanation " contends that whether alliances will terminate is closely related to the comparison of the security utility between arming and allies.Then,this paper analyzes the theoretical logic of the above five explanations,and discusses their limitations.Finally,this paper suggests a research approach to develop the theory construction of alliance dissolution based on deep understanding of the theoretical and empirical literatures on alliance dissolution.