自由现金流理论或自由现金流“悖论”——基于A股白酒行业的实证研究

近年进入低成长期的白酒行业，不仅其价格的大起大落及相关政策的不断出台使其处于发展变化的风口浪尖上，而且其行业内部分公司所表现出的高自由现金流、高收益与“高派现”和谐并存的局面更是令我们疑惑不解：难道自由现金流理论在中国真的被推翻了？文章通过对2003年到2012年间白酒行业派现、自由现金流及代理成本的实证研究发现：尽管自由现金流水平的高低与企业的单位派现水平无显著相关性，但由于高自由现金流企业的派现意愿普遍更强，并且高股利支付率与企业的代理成本水平有显著负相关关系。即白酒行业的表现并未推翻自由现金流理论，只是国内上市公司股利支付水平普遍偏低，又缺乏高派现的内在动力，这才是导致自由现金流“悖论”假象产生的真正原因。

Free Cash Flow Theory or Free Cash Flow Paradox---An empirical study based on liquor industry in A-share market

Application and interpretation of the theory of free cash flow must fit to some corresponding prerequisite, while both the external environment in Chinese stock market and corporate governance structure of domestic listed company do not fully meet these conditions. In recent years, some companies with high-yield and high free cash flow in the low-growth liquor industry have caused the public attention. Is the free cash flow theory ineffective in explaining the behavior of domestic enterprises？ Based on the empirical study of the liquor industry＆#39;s cash dividends, free cash flow and agency costs from 2003 to 2012, it can be concluded that there has not any significant correlation between the unit cash payment level and free cash flow. But the businesses with a high free cash flow generally has a relative stronger desire to pay cash dividend, and the high dividend payout ratio shows a significant negative correlation with the level of corporate agency costs. That proved that the free cash flow theory cannot be overthrown. It is just the low level of dividend payment in domestic share market and lacking inherent power of high cash dividend payment that cause the free cash flow“paradox”illusion.