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Comparison of the Historic Recycling Risk for BSE in Three European Countries by Calculating the Basic Reproduction Ratio R0
Authors:Heinzpeter Schwermer  Aline de Koeijer  Franz Brülisauer  Dagmar Heim
Institution:Swiss Federal Veterinary Office (SFVO), P.O. Box, CH-3003, Bern, Switzerland. heinzpeter.schwermer@bvet.admin.ch
Abstract:A deterministic model of BSE transmission is used to calculate the R(0) values for specific years of the BSE epidemics in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands (NL), and Switzerland (CH). In all three countries, the R(0) values decreased below 1 after the introduction of a ban on feeding meat and bone meal (MBM) to ruminants around the 1990s. A variety of additional measures against BSE led to further decrease of R(0) to about 0.06 in the years around 1998. The calculated R(0) values were consistent with the observations made on the surveillance results for UK, but were partially conflicting with the surveillance results for NL and CH. There was evidence for a dependency of the BSE epidemic in NL and CH from an infection source not considered in the deterministic transmission model. Imports of MBM and feed components can be an explanation for this discrepancy, and the importance of imports for these observations is discussed.
Keywords:Basic reproduction ratio  control measure  deterministic model  imports  rendering
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