An Explanatory Model for Projecting Regional Fertility Differences in the Netherlands |
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Authors: | Joop de Beer Ingeborg Deerenberg |
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Institution: | (1) Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, The Netherlands;(2) Statistics Netherlands, P.O. Box 4000, 2270 JM Voorburg, The Netherlands |
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Abstract: | Current differences in the level of the total fertility rate (TFR) between Dutch municipalities are smaller than they were
in the 1970s and 1980s. Nevertheless, there are still considerable differences. Small municipalities have higher TFRs than
large cities. This article aims to answer the question whether these differences will decline further until differences between
large and small cities disappear. For that purpose we develop a regression model of regional differences in the TFR including
demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural variables. Using the estimation results we decompose differences in fertility between
large and small cities into the contribution of differences in levels of the determinants versus differences in the relationships
between the determinants and fertility. The results show that differences in cultural variables have a larger effect on differences
in the TFR than the demographic and socioeconomic variables. As cultural differences do not tend to change quickly, they will
not lead to quick changes in regional differences in the TFR. Demographic differences are not expected to lead to strong changes
either, as the two demographic variables (household structure and ethnic structure) have opposite effects. As the effect of
the socioeconomic variable is caused by differences in the magnitude of the regression coefficient rather than by differences
in the value of this variable, even if differences in this variable disappeared, this would still not lead to convergence
of the TFR. Thus the article concludes that differences in the TFR between large and small cities are not likely to diminish
quickly. |
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Keywords: | Fertility Regional population projections TFR |
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