The Urban Geography of Welfare Reform: Spatial Patterns of Caseload Dynamics in Detroit

Objective . To assess how the characteristics of welfare recipients have varied geographically in the Detroit metropolitan area since the passage of welfare reform in 1996 and how spatial proximity to job opportunities is related to work rates among welfare recipients. Methods . Using administrative data on welfare receipt in the Detroit metropolitan area and data from two employer surveys in Detroit, I examine changes in the welfare caseload between 1992 and 2000 and estimate logit models of the probability that welfare recipients report work earnings in 1998. Results . Although the number of adult welfare recipients in the Detroit metropolitan area declined by over 75 percent between 1992 and 2000, nearly 25,000 households—most residing in the central city—continue to receive welfare. Rates of work among welfare recipients are positively related to the accessibility of employment opportunities. Conclusions . My results indicate that support services and programs in the coming years will have to fit a caseload that is changing both qualitatively and geographically. Further, consistent with the most current spatial mismatch research, my findings show that greater access to job opportunities leads to greater rates of reported work earnings among welfare recipients.