Markov chain Monte Carlo test of toric homogeneous Markov chains |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Banco de México, Mexico City, Mexico;2. Department of Applied Mathematics, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung 80424, Taiwan;1. Centre for Research in Mathematics, Western Sydney University, Australia;2. Akita International University, Japan;3. School of Physical Sciences, University of Tasmania, Australia;4. School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, University of New South Wales, Australia;5. Evolution & Ecology Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Australia |
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| Abstract: | Markov chain models are used in various fields, such as behavioral sciences or econometrics. Although the goodness of fit of the model is usually assessed by large sample approximation, it is desirable to use conditional tests if the sample size is not large. We study Markov bases for performing conditional tests of the toric homogeneous Markov chain model, which is the envelope exponential family for the usual homogeneous Markov chain model. We give a complete description of a Markov basis for the following cases: (i) two-state, arbitrary length, (ii) arbitrary finite state space and length of three. The general case remains to be a conjecture. We also present a numerical example of conditional tests based on our Markov basis. |
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