首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      


Technological forecasting of supercomputer development: The March to Exascale computing
Institution:1. High Energy Physics Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL 60439, USA;2. Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL 60439, USA;3. Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, The University of Chicago, 5640 S. Ellis Ave., Chicago, IL 60637, USA;4. Computation Institute, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA;5. Argonne Leadership Computing Facility, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439, USA;6. Department of Physics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA;7. Computer, Computational, and Statistical Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA;8. Kitware, 28 Corporate Drive, Clifton Park, NY 12065, USA;9. Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 90095, USA;10. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208, USA;1. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics RAS, 4A, Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, 125047, Russia;2. Scientific Research Institute of System Development of RAS, 36-1, Nahimovskiy prosp., Moscow, 117218, Russia;1. Department of Business Sciences, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Fallersleber-Tor-Wall 23, 38100 Braunschweig, Germany;2. Department of Operations and Information Management, Aston Business School, Aston University, Birmingham B4 7ET, United Kingdom
Abstract:Advances in supercomputers have come at a steady pace over the past 20 years. The next milestone is to build an Exascale computer however this requires not only speed improvement but also significant enhancements for energy efficiency and massive parallelism. This paper examines technological progress of supercomputer development to identify the innovative potential of three leading technology paths toward Exascale development: hybrid system, multicore system and manycore system. Performance measurement and rate of change calculation were made by technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA.) The results indicate that the current level of technology and rate of progress can achieve Exascale performance between early 2021 and late 2022 as either hybrid systems or manycore systems.
Keywords:Data envelopment analysis  Technological forecasting  State of the art  Rate of change  Supercomputer
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号