陕西能源产业扩张对经济增长的贡献分析

首先将国民经济部门分为能源部门和非能源部门,利用Feder模型阐释了能源产业扩张对经济增长的影响机理,然后利用成分分解法对陕西能源产业扩张与经济增长的关系进行了统计检验.研究发现,陕西能源产业增长率与经济增长率在水平序列、波动成分和趋势成分等方面变化高度一致.最后通过二阶自回归方程对陕西能源产业扩张与经济增长的关系进行计量检验,结果显示:能源产业对经济增长的直接影响系数为27.20,间接溢出系数为0.26.这说明,2000年之后能源产业对国民经济直接贡献呈逐步上升趋势,而间接贡献呈现先降后升的L型变化特征.因此,必须大力提高能源产业的间接溢出效应,以推动陕西区域经济的持续高速发展.

The Contribute Rate of Energy Industry Expansion to Economic Growth of ShaanXi Province

Firstly,the paper divides the national economy into the energy department and the department of energy sector and explains the Impact Mechanism between energy industry expansion and economic growth of Shaanxi by using Feder model.Secondly the paper makes a Statistical research on the relationship between energy industry expansion and economic growth of Shaanxi.The results show that the energy industry growth rate and the economic growth rate have a high degree of consensus.Finally,the paper makes a second order autoregressive econometric analysis on the relationship between energy industry expansion and economic growth of Shaanxi province.The result shows that the direct and indirect contribution of energy industry investment to economic growth is the greatest of all.So we should redouble efforts to boost energy industry development in order to guarantee continuous economical growth of Shaanxi.