基于金融CGE模型的中国绿色信贷政策短中长期影响分析

十二五将节能环保作为一大关键主题, 中国将更多地使用市场经济手段治理环境, 与命令-控制手段互为补充。绿色信贷政策是其中重要的金融政策。本文从绿色信贷政策中对"双高"行业实施惩罚性高利率这一市场化的利率政策入手, 利用中国2007年SAM表, 部分行业主要上市企业年报, 2006年及2007年资金流量表及金融年鉴数据, 建立一个加入金融系统的CGE(可计算一般均衡)模型, 刻画绿色信贷政策的传导路径, 定量测算政策在不同时期的系统性影响。结果发现绿色信贷政策能够较为有效地抑制目标行业的投资行为, 并在短期、中期内能减少造纸业、化工业产出。在长期, 目标行业投资、产出回升, 抵消绿色信贷对抑制目标行业产出的效果。

The Short,Medium and Long Term Effects of Green Credit Policy in China Based on a Financial CGE Model

Market-based policies are implemented to achieve environmental targets in China's 12^th five-year plan. Green credit policy is one of the most important financial policies. In this paper, it is assumed that commercial banks request higher interest rates from the high-emission industries and try to explore mechanism and path of green credit policy with the model, as well as policy effects on industrial and macro economy. A Chinese financial CGE model is applied and data from listing corporation annual reports, real SAM of China, flow of fund tables and Yearbook of Finance of China in 2006 and 2007 are used. It is found that green credit policy is effective in reducing investment of the high-emission industries. And in the short or medium term, it has negative impacts on the production activities of paper and chemical industries but it is not effective on non-metal ores or steel and metals industries.