经济发展潜能与人力资本质量

本文以人力资本数量和质量的测算为切入点,研究人均产出水平差异的成因与中国经济的发展潜能问题。本文依据真实经济周期模型确定人力资本数量的"基准水平",推导得出人力资本质量测算公式。由此测算全球经济、7个经济区域、4个经济组织、73个经济体的人力资本质量及年均增长率,按照测算结果从总量和人均这两个层面对其经济增长进行核算分析。本文发现,人力资本质量水平的跨国差异能够解释人均产出水平跨国差异的绝大部分,这两种差异将长期存在,即使高收入经济体之间也未显示出趋同的经验证据。测算结果表明,中国经济的人力资本质量水平显著落后于发达国家且其提升速率确已逐渐放缓。这一经济事实既决定了长期内中国仍将是发展中经济体,又成为制约中国经济可持续发展潜能的重要因素。因此,人力资本质量水平快速提升是中国经济实现潜在发展能力的关键,更是实现赶超目标的基础。而合乎数理逻辑、易于观测、在政策实践中可操作性较好且空间较大的人力资本质量提升途径是消费产出比的扩大。本文预测,若将中国经济消费产出比在未来30年内平稳扩大至2017年美国经济的0.865,仅此就能确保中国最晚可于2027年成为高收入经济体。同时,若能辅之以成熟度不断提高的市场经济体制并将政府支出侧重于持续优化整个教育体系、加大人力资本投资、强化基础研究,或将缩短中国成为发达经济体和领先经济体的时间进程。本文预测,若人力资本质量提升的年均率额外再增加1%,2024年,中国就可跻身高收入经济体;2049年,人均产出水平接近5万美元,达到美国的54.7%。

Economic Development Potentials and Human Capital Quality

This paper explores the causes of cross-country differences in output per capita and the developmentpotentials of China economy based on measuring the quantity and quality of human capital. The paper calculates thequantitative benchmarks of human capital and derives the equation of measuring quality of human capital within a ba-sic real business circle model and by employing its steady-state and log-linear system. The paper obtains the data ofquality of human capital and of its average annual growth rates of global economy, 7 economic regions, 4 economic or-ganizations and 73 economies, and performs growth accounting at aggregate and per capita level accordingly.The paper finds that differences in quality of human capital could explain most part of cross-country differencesin output per capita, and these differences in quality and quantity of human capital will always exist, and that thereare no experience evidences implying the convergence among high-income economies even. In 2017, the output percapita of OECD is 5.35 times to that of China, and the difference in human capital quality could explain 99.0% ofthe output for OECD, 95.0% for Western Europe, 89.6% for Japan, 97.2% for Germany, 97.7% for France, 94.8% forItaly, and 97.4% for Canada. During the period from 1981 to 2017, on average, the output per capita of G7 as aneconomy is 23.15 times to that of China economy, and the difference in human capital quality could account for91.9% of the former one;90.5% for OECD, 88.7% for Western Europe, 95.6% for U.S., 85.4% for Japan, 89.9% forGermany, 92.5% for U.K., 90.9% for France, 89.5% for Italy and 87.5% for Canada.The measured data suggest that the actual level of human capital quality of China is much lower than developedcountries in addition to its decreasing average annual growth rate. Under the condition of setting a same quantitativebenchmark, the human capital quality of China economy in 2017 is 0.56, which is equal to that of global economy.The human capital quality of OECD, G7 and of U.S. in 2017 is 1.47, 1.81 and 2.23 respectively. The average annualgrowth rate of human capital of China economy during the period of 1981~2017, 2000~2017 and 2010~2017 is5.61%, 3.54% and 2.23% respectively. These economic facts, which mean that China will continue developing in thelong term, are slowing down the sustainable development of Chinese economy. If the human capital quality of OECD,G7 and U.S. is regarded as the standard for being a developed economy, a leading one or the champion, in line withtheir average annual growth rates of human capital quality during the period of 1981~2017, 2000~2017 and 2010~2017, then 23, 33 and 64 years will be needed for China to be a developed economy;28, 41 and 72 years for beinga leading one;35, 51 and 97 years for being the champion.Therefore, a rapid improvement of human capital quality is the key to release the development potentials of Chi-nese economy and, more important, the foundation to achieve the development goals. Increasing the ratio of final con-sumption to output is the way to enhance human capital quality, which is easy to be observed and complies with math-ematical logic. The paper forecasts that, if the ratio is managed to gradually increase to 0.865 of U.S. economy in2017 in future 30 years, or annually increase by 1.84%, China will, to the latest, become a high-income economy by2027 with the output per capita of 12,257.76 USD(constant price of 2010). And, if the market-oriented reform makescontinuous success and the government expenditures focus on optimizing the whole education system, investing in hu-man capital and financing fundamental research, the time for China to grow up as a developed economy, a leadingone and the champion could be less. On the basis of assuming an extra 1% annual growth rate of human capital quali-ty because of the emerging favorable shocks to human capital quality, the paper predicts that China could probablybe a high-income economy by 2024 and its output per capita may be 50,000 USD by 2049, which is 54.7% of U.S.