| 基于专家群组判断的主观概率确定 |
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| 引用本文： | 李嘉明,朱如意,鲁晓利.基于专家群组判断的主观概率确定[J].统计与信息论坛,2008,23(10):18-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李嘉明 朱如意 鲁晓利 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 重庆大学,经济与工商管理学院,重庆,400030
2. 西安理工大学,人文学院,陕西,西安,710048 |
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| 摘 要： | 国内关于主观概率的研究很多,但主要集中在个体的判断上,对国际上主流的联合专家判断的研究方法鲜有涉及。在提出利用专家组工作的基础上,先采用聚类分析的方法,剔除个别离异点集;之后基于专家的判断力,赋予专家相应的权重,加权平均后,最终得出主观概率判断的结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 专家群组 Delphi法 聚类分析 判断力 专家权重 |
Determination of Subjective Probability Based on Expert Group's Judgement |
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| LI Jia-ming,ZHU Ru-yi,LU Xiao-li.Determination of Subjective Probability Based on Expert Group''s Judgement[J].Statistics & Information Tribune,2008,23(10):18-20. |
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| Authors: | LI Jia-ming ZHU Ru-yi LU Xiao-li |
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| Institution: | LI Jia-ming, ZHU Ru-yi, LU Xiao-li(1. School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China; 2. School of humanities, Xi＇an University of Technology, Xi＇an 710048, China) |
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| Abstract: | Much of domestic research on subjective probability focused on individual judgement, but a little of these research related to the main method based on united experts＇ judgement in the globe. In the paper, we propose an idea based on expert group＇ s work. Firstly, we get rid of deviation dots by the method of duster analysis. Secondly, we take appropriate expert weight due to expert sense. Finally, we make a conclusion about subiective probability. |
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| Keywords: | expert group Delphi method cluster analysis sense expert weight |
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