结构突变理论在中国就业结构分析中的应用

运用结构突变理论对1978—2007年中国就业结构进行分析，结果表明：中国各产业就业量数据为结构突变的趋势稳定过程，说明中国产业就业量的增长受到外部冲击的影响，出现了波动，但从长期来看，其增长沿着确定的轨迹增长。进一步运用变结构协整理论，分析中国产业结构与就业结构的长期稳定关系，结果表明协突变关系在各产业就业量与其对应增加值之间均成立，说明外生性冲击对中国产业就业量的变动有较大的影响。

The Application of the Structural Break Theory on the Analysis of China's Employment Structure

This paper applies the theory of the structural break to analyze the Chinese employment from1978 to 2007,the results show that the data of industry employment is a process of trend stationary.Then the paper use the theory of structure break co-integration to analysis the long-term stable relationship between industrial structure and employment structure,the results show that the employment and the industrial value have the relationship of structure break co-integration,it means that the exogenous shocks hav...