“撤点并校”、家庭背景与入学机会

本研究旨在探究在“撤点并校”的政策调整下，家庭背景是如何影响子女的教育获得机会的。本文利用“中国家庭追踪调查”（CFPS）2010年到2012年追踪个案的数据，通过对农村学生小学至初中毕业升学历程的回溯，建立基于Cox比例风险模型的“辍学模型”和基于Logistic模型和线性概率模型的“升学模型”，发现家庭背景始终是影响子女教育机会的重要因素。在“撤点并校”刚开始执行的年份，农村学生在义务教育阶段的辍学风险反而有所降低，家庭背景在“撤点并校”后对于子女的入学几率起到更为重要的作用。本文认为，这一政策使得农村家庭在教育上“主动投入”，而这种家庭层面对于政策的回应使政策的影响效果被削弱或者推迟，从宏观上观察到的家庭背景在教育层面上的再生产机制是每个家庭在制度驱动下做出选择的结果。

School Merging,Family Background and Opportunities of Education Attainment

The school merging process,begun in the mid 1990s, aimed at optimizing the distribution of resources and improving the quality of compulsory education. This process had an significant influence on educational opportunities for rural children. Due to the decrease in education resources, this paper aims to answer how the family background of some students influence educational opportunities. In this paper,I divide family background into three kinds of capital: cultural, economic, and political capital. Using panel resampling cases taken from the China Family Panel Survey (CFPS) in 2010 to 2012,and by reviewing the educational experiences of rural students from primary school to graduation from junior high school, I use the Cox model to establish a “drop-out model” and use a logistic model and linear probability model to establish the “high school entrance-model”. I obtained the following results: family background will always be a crucial factor for educational opportunities; the risk of school drop-out surprisingly declined in the beginning years of the school merging process; parents' capital has played a more important role after school merging. With the response to the policy change from families, the negative effects of the policy have been denied, or remedies have been postponed. The policy change encourages rural families to invest actively in the education of their desendant. Among the three categories of capital, investments in cultural capital have the biggest effect, increasing survival time and educational opportunities. I hold the view that the rebirth of education that can be observed on the macro scale is mirrored by the micro choices of the family on the institutional level.