安全事故现状与趋势分析方法研究

包括安全生产事故预防、控制在内的安全生产监督管理工作需要客观把握安全生产的现状并准确地判断其总体发展趋势。本文基于我国安全生产事故快报数据,对近年安全生产现状做出季节性等分析,并为短期安全生产形势变化的预测与判断不仅提出了三个可行的ARIMA-BP、ARIMA-RBF以及ARIMA-GRNN非线性组合模型而且进一步基于RBF,对前述三个模型再次进行非线性组合,给出了一种新的双重非线性组合趋势分析方法。实证结果表明,双重非线性组合能够较为精确地预测安全生产事故的发展趋势,可以为安全生产事故的预防、控制和应对提供管理和决策支持。

The Analysis and Forecast of National Accident Trends in Work Safety

Based on the data query system of accidents in work provided by the State Administration of Work Safety,not only does this paper analyzes the statistics of work safety accidents but also explores the development trend of work safety accidents from 2001 to 2008.(accidents in work safety are classified by the number of deaths).At the same time,the ARIMA-BP、ARIMA-RBF and ARIMA-GRNN nonlinear com bining forecast model are constructed.At last,this paper constructs a double nonlinear combining for ecast model by combining threesingle nonlinear combining fo recast models with RBF net work.The results indicate that the accuracy of the double nonlinear combining forecasting models are higher than the accuracy of the single ARIMA model and three single nonlinear combining forecast models.This study provides a new method for promoting the development and improvement of strategic planning of work safety.