对外贸易隐含SO2测算及影响因素的结构分解分析

 本研究根据中国2002、2005、2007年非竞争型投入产出表、OECD的国外投入产出表和GTAP Version 7.0的SO2排放强度等数据，利用多国投入产出模型方法测算了中国对外贸易中隐含SO2,相关的行业结构分布以及隐含污染物在主要贸易伙伴国的贸易流向，并通过结构分解方法分析了三大因素对出口贸易隐污染物的贡献大小。研究结果表明：2002年至2007年间，我国对外贸易创造了巨大贸易顺差，同时也带来了大量隐含SO2顺差；迅速增长的贸易规模是出口贸易隐含污染物增加的主要因素,但是，环境保护和节能减排技术改进导致的SO2排放强度下降抑制出口贸易隐含SO2增加，而投入产出中间结构变化对其影响较小。

Measurement of Embodied SO2 and Structural Decomposition Analysis of the Factors

This paper measures the embodied SO2 of China foreign trade,the industrial distribution of embodied SO2 and the trade flows among the main trade partners by using the method of multi-country input-output table model,based on the data of 2002,2005,2007 non-competitive input-output tables from China,foreign input-output tables from OECD and foreign pollution emission intensity from GTAP version 7.0.Moreover,by using the structural decomposition analysis,the paper explains reasons of the increase of embodied SO2 of export trade and contribution rate of the three factors.The results show that: in the period of 2002 to 2007,China foreign trade not only had a large trade surplus,but also brought about great surplus of embodied SO2.The rapid increasing size of China export trade was the main reason for the increase of the embodied SO2 of China export trade.However,due to the strict environment protect policy and the advance of energy saving technology,the decline of the intensity of emission has played an import role in inhibiting the increase of embodied SO2 in export trade.