基于博弈论的宏观经济政策动态非一致性研究

通过论述理性预期和动态非一致性理论在宏观经济博弈分析中的发展,分析了政府与公众的动态博弈过程及宏观经济政策在二者博弈后的结果,最后对我国宏观调控政策提出增强决策透明度,加强制度保障,健全宏观调控体系等有利于形成良好、准确的公众预期以及减少政策的动态非一致性的建议。

Dynamic Inconsistency of Macro-economic Policies Based on the Game Theory

The development of rational anticipation and dynamic inconsistency theory gives the game theory a deeper meaning in the field of macro-economy.When the government formulates macro-economy policies,the rational anticipation of the public should be fully considered;in order to avoid the dynamic inconsistency of the policies,it is necessary to establish the relevant rules and system.By studying the development of rational anticipation and dynamic inconsistency theory in the game of macro-economy,this paper analyzes the process of dynamic game between the government and the public and discusses its result.To form accurate public expectation and reduce the possibility of dynamic inconsistency,the paper provides suggestions to the government,including enhancing the transparency of decision-making,intensifying the system guarantee,improving the system of macro-economic control and so on.