“Minutes to Midnight”: Problems and Promises

Abstract

This paper assesses the relative impact of direct and indirect determinants of marital fertility in Pakistan, where the vast majority of women do not use any method of fertility regulation. Data came from the 1990/91 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, and models were estimated for women aged 15–49, 15–24, 25–34 and 35–49. The younger cohort may be the vanguard of change; change which may be masked by investigating only the conventional 15–49 age group. Findings indicate that unlike the older cohorts, the younger cohort does not have negative and significant relationships between education, employment and fertility; and, that the current use of family planning is positive and significant with fertility for the 35–49 cohort only. These findings suggest that there is a threshold or minimum number of children that a woman must produce before determinants such as current use of family planning, education and employment impact fertility.