当前经济形势分析及相关政策建议

2014年中国经济增速将低于2013年,季度经济增速可能低于7%:经济依然处于下行周期中;全社会固定资产投资将结束年增长20%以上的历史;中国依然不会出现通货膨胀问题;地方政府债务泡沫、某些产能泡沫有可能破灭并引发短暂的阵痛,但这些小泡沫的破灭有利于经济长期发展、有利于大局。我国经济增速放慢是规律使然,是消化产能过剩的过程中必须经历的,是调整结构、转型升级的过程中必须经历的,是消化刺激政策后遗症的过程中必须经历的,也是深化改革的过程中必须经历的。

The Current Economic Situation and Relevant Policy Recommendations

China＇s economic growth in 2014 will be lower than in 2013, quarter economic growth may be lower than 7%. the economy is still in a downward cycle; total fixed asset investment will end yearly growth of more than 20% in history; at present, there is no need for special attention to the problem of inflation; local government debt bubble, some capacity bubble may shatter and lead to a short pains, but the burst of these small bubble is in favor of long--term development and the overall situation. China＇s economic slowdown is the law dictates, is a process that must go through to digest excess capacity, is a process that must go through to adjust structure, transform and upgrade. It is the process of digesting the sequela of stimulus must be experienced, but also deepen the reform of process must be going through. Recommended the introduction of relevant policies so that the slope of the decline in economic growth should not be too steep, but not with strong stimulation and backing. Challenges facing our country＇s economic future are very serious. Policy resources are overly put, neither can the market clearing, but also amplify the bubble, and lack policy resources when the economy really needs a strong policy stimulus in the future.