Regional Contexts and Family Formation: Evidence from the German Family Panel

Substantial regional variation in marriage and fertility patterns continues to exist in Germany. Following a multilevel approach, we exploit longitudinal data from the German Family Panel (pairfam), enhanced by an array of district-level variables, to investigate the extent to which spatial variations in men’s and women’s family formation behaviors result from differences in population composition or from ‘true’ contextual effects. Our multilevel analyses provide evidence for only small—if any—contextual effects on individuals’ family formation behaviors (except for a continuation of significant differences between East and West Germany). However, we still find indication that (1) regional economic circumstances matter in determining individuals’ fertility intentions as well as their transition to first marriage, (2) regional milieus are associated with individuals’ fertility, and that (3) selective family migration takes place. While it seems that social interaction rather than differences in local opportunity structures plays a role here, more research is needed to further substantiate this conclusion.