中国入境旅游需求弹性估算—基于误差修正模型

基于17个国家1999—2018年各季度的数据, 构建旅游价格影响入境旅游消费人次的动态固定效应面板模型, 研究旅游价格在国别差异下对入境旅游消费影响的差异性。研究结果表明: 实际相对价格和实际替代价格对入境旅游消费人次存在显著的负向影响效应, 而且相对价格的负向作用更强。同时, 国内物价水平稳定对入境旅游消费人次具有重要的作用; 旅客旅游消费偏好具有稳定性, 相对于东南亚国家及与中国临近的三国, 欧盟国家对中国入境旅游消费的偏好更稳定也更理性; 旅游目的地国开放度提高1%对入境旅游消费人次带来0.8%的增长, 但客源国开放度会导致入境旅游消费人次的分流; 在全球金融危机、

Substitute prices in models of tourism demand

Based on the quarterly data of 17 countries from 1999 to 2018, this paper constructs a dynamic fixed effect panel model of the impact of tourism price on inbound tourists, and studies the differences of the impact of tourism price on inbound tourism consumption in different countries. The results show that the actual relative price and the actual substitute price have significant negative effects on the inbound tourists, and the negative effect of the relative price is stronger. At the same time, the stability of domestic price level plays an important role in the number of inbound tourists. Compared with Southeast Asian countries, and the three countries closed to China, EU countries have more stable and rational preferences for China's inbound tourism consumption. A 1% increase in the openness of a country will bring 0.8% increase in the number of inbound tourists, but the openness of the source country will lead to the diversion of inbound tourists. Among the global financial crisis, SARS and terrorist attacks, SARS has the greatest negative impact on inbound tourists.