| 对外贸易影响中国经济增长的动态分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王博文,刘仓,郭亚军.对外贸易影响中国经济增长的动态分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2010,25(1):26-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王博文 刘仓 郭亚军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西北农林科技大学,经济管理学院,陕西,杨凌,712100
2. 西安财经学院,管理学院,陕西,西安,710100 |
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| 基金项目： | 陕西省社会科学界重大理论和现实问题研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用计量经济学方法对中国1980-2007年相关经济变量时间序列数据的平稳性进行ADF检验,对修正后表现平稳的变量进行协整分析,研究在长期内是否存在稳定的均衡关系。通过构建协整方程、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系式分析各经济变量在长期均衡和短期波动中相互因果关系的影响。研究结果表明：在短期内经济增长更多受制于需求,而长期内取决于生产效率的提高。因此在继续重视出口贸易创造市场作用的前提下,要充分发挥外贸在增加要素供给和创造市场需求两个方面的作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 对外贸易 经济增长 动态分析 |
Dynamic Analysis of Chinese Foreign Trade Influence on the Economic Development |
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| WNAG Bo-wen,LIU Cang,GUO Ya-jun.Dynamic Analysis of Chinese Foreign Trade Influence on the Economic Development[J].Statistics & Information Tribune,2010,25(1):26-31. |
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| Authors: | WNAG Bo-wen LIU Cang GUO Ya-jun |
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| Institution: | WANG Bo-wen1,LIU Cang2,GUO Ya-jun1(1.School of Economics , Management,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China,2.School of Management,Xi\'an University of Finance , Economics,Xi\'an 710100,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper tests the stationary of relevant Chinese economic variables from 1980 to 2007 by ADF test,and analyses their co-integration relation to decide whether there is a stable balanced relation among them.Then it analyses their long-term elastic relations by establishing a co-integration analyzing equation.It also researches their dynamic relations influenced by the short-term fluctuation by establishing an error correct model;finally it uses Granger causality test to specify the statistical causality b... |
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| Keywords: | foreign trade economic growth dynamic analysis |
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