论冷战的起源——虚假均势、极权主义政体与冷战的爆发

本文主要借鉴肯尼斯.沃尔兹（Kennith Waltz）在其著作《国际关系理论》（Theory of International Politics）一书中对理论的划分——解构理论（Reductionist Theory）以及体系理论（Systemic Theory）,在体系层面以及行为体层面总结出冷战爆发的两大原因：＂虚假＂两极格局下自由主义构想（即罗斯福的＂四大警察＂构想）的内在缺陷以及将此缺陷无限放大的前苏联极权主义政体。为了说明＂四大警察＂构想的缺陷,笔者详细分析了＂囚徒困境＂模型给我们的启示,再将美国和前苏联比作两个囚徒,用此模型去分析冷战的爆发。

The Origin of the Cold War:The Influence of a Fake Balance of Power and a Totalitarian Political System

This article mainly refers to Kennith Waltz＇s work Theory of International Politics in which he divides international political theories into two categories： reductionist theories and systemic theories.Based on this categorization,I try to devise two theories to explain the break-out of the Cold War： 1） The inherent weakness of Roosevelt＇s initial liberalistic contrivance,namingly the Four-Policemen contrivance,after the WWII in a ＂fake＂ bipolar system,;2） The totalitarian nature of Soviet political system that magnifies this weakness. The article also uses the ＂prisoner dilemma＂ model to explain how the weakness arises and how it contributes to the Cold War.