印尼政局发展评析

1997年亚洲金融危机爆发两年来 ,印尼国内政局经历了由苏哈托、哈比比到瓦希得的政权变迁。新成立的瓦希得政府面临许多危机 ,其中主要有分离主义势力的猖獗 (尤其是亚齐危机 )、军人干政和经济困顿问题。但国家分裂的可能性不大 ,联邦制将成为印尼的最佳选择。历史遗留的军人干政问题将继续 ,军人和文人政府的权力的平衡有助于局势稳定 ,但在内外压力之下 ,军人最终将淡出政治舞台。通过争取国家社会的投资和贷款、吸收华人资本回流等方式 ,经济也将得到较快的恢复与发展

On Indonesia's political development

In 1997, the finanial crisis of Asia gave a heavy blow to Indonesian economy. Then Indonesian internal politics witnessed a power transition from Suharto, Habibi to Wahid. The new Wahid government is encountering many crisis, among which are the military interfering in politics, economic depression, and the disturbances caused by the separatists, especially is Aceh. But first, there is little possibility that Aceh will depart, and federalism can be the best choice for Indonesia. Second, the issue of military interfering in politics, which is a problem of history, will last. The balance of power between military and civilian government can help enhance internal stability. But in the long run, the military will fade away from political stage under the pressure both at home and abroad. Third, to realize economic revival and development, the new government is adopting various measures, such as striving for the foreign investments and loans, and getting the ethnic Chinese capital flow back. In all, Indonesian internal politics will become stable gradually and Indonesia will be again on the way of fast economic growth.