中国证券市场泡沫化程度及影响分析

在全国性二级交易市场成立至今不到10年的时间内,中国证券市场发展很快,规模迅速扩大,通过对市场的泡沫化程度进行定量及实证分析得知,中国证券市场的泡沫化程度呈逐步加深的趋势,2000年中期时已达日本1990年泡沫经济崩溃前的水平.证券市场的系统特性及运行机制需要并允许泡沫存在,中国证券市场的特性进一步给泡沫化创造了优越的条件,然而,历史的经验警示世人,高度泡沫化的证券市场蕴含着巨大的金融风险,一旦释放将给社会和经济带来巨大的动荡.对高度泡沫的中国证券市场的现实及潜在影响进行分析,发现其弊大于利,危害程度及风险呈加大的趋势,及时在现有市场规模下从制度缺陷、中长期监管理念等方面入手,进行全方位改革与完善已刻不容缓.

China's Security Market :Bubble Degree and Influence

Within 10 years after the establishment of the National Exchange Market, China's Security Market has developed rapidly and its scale en larged very quickly. By the analysis of the fixed quantity and instances of mark et's bubble degree, we find the bubble degree in China's Security Market shows a grad ually deepening tendency. In middle 2000,it reached the level that Japan did bef ore Japan's bubble economy collapsed in 1990's. The systematic characteristics a nd running mechanic in the Security Market need and allow bubble's existence and the specific property of China's Security Market creates superior conditions fo r further highly bubbling. But the history lessons warn us that highly bubbling Security Market contains huge financial risk and once releasing, it will bring g reat volatility to the society and economy. By analyzing the existing and potent ial influence of highly bubbling China's Security Market, we find it will do more harmful than good. Its endangering degree and risk tend to become bigger. So i t is of great urgency to carry on a comprehensive reform and improvement from th e aspects of system deficiency, the middle and long term supervisory view and et c under the Current Market Scale.