重庆市经济发展与城乡统筹的动态关系研究

基于协整理论和向量自回归模型,利用重庆市1985-2006年的统计数据对其经济发展与城乡统筹的动态关系进行了实证分析.结果表明:重庆市经济发展与城乡统筹间存在着长期稳定的协整关系;短期内只存在重庆城乡统筹到经济发展的单向因果关系,但长期存在着一种双向的、互为因果的动态关系;同时,经济发展并不会自动促进城乡差距的缩小,若没有相关政策的调整,中长期内会继续加大城乡差距,而短期内城乡统筹对经济发展的影响并不明显,长期内在国家现有宏观政策的驱动下城乡统筹发展会促进经济发展.

Study on the Dynamic Relationship Between Economic Development and Urban-Rural Interactions of Chongqing

Based on the theory of cointegration and VAR model,the authors of this paper conduct an empirical investigation of the relationship between economic development and urban-rural interactions,utilizing annual data of Chongqing from 1985 to 2006.The research findings show that there is a lasting stable cointegrative relationship between them in Chongqing,that there is only a short-term one-way causal relationship from urban-rural interactions to economic development while in the long run a cause-effect relatio...