1978年以来中国改革成功的原因探究——有限理性政府试错式改革与满意实现

实现改革过程中经济社会的平稳和发展即满意,需要政府的合理抉择;而政府的有限理性则决定了合理的政府抉择必须是一个基于解决问题,采取合适试错方式的改革过程。解决问题要求政府通过信息分析,准确诊断社会状况,提出事前能为社会接受的改革方案。合适试错式改革要求有限理性政府通过试错式改革平衡社会发展和稳定的动态要求,掌握改革主导权。就迄今为止的中国改革而言,由于政府在试错式改革过程中牢牢把握住了发展、改革和稳定三位一体的执政理念,时刻注意自己的抉择与经济社会的协调,从而能比较满意地实现改革目标。

An Inquiry to the Causes of the Success of Chinese Reform since 1978:Bounded Rational Government's Reform Experiment and Realization of Satisfaction

The development and stabilization of economy-society in the process of reformation depends on the government's reasonable choice,so the government's decision must be an experiment process because of its bounded rationality.In order to solve problems,the government must diagnose the state of society exactly and put out scheme that can be accepted by society through information analysis.Suitable experimental reform means that government can balance the dynamic appeals of social development and stability,and grasp the guiding power of reform.Because the Chinese government has been noticing the relation between its decision and the development of economy society based on the administrative idea of the coherence among development,reform and stability,the reform has been succeeded.