| 我国人口政策的调节时机研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢戟,李春洋,胡动刚.我国人口政策的调节时机研究[J].西北人口,2013(6):25-28. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢戟 李春洋 胡动刚 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院,武汉430070 [2]华中农业大学理学院,武汉430073 [3]武汉市社科院长江流域经济研究所,武汉430019 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（2013RW006）,2013年湖北省重大调研课题基金项目（ZB201346）,华中农业大学研究生教育创新工程（2009KC017）. |
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| 摘 要： | 本文从研究人口抚养比入手建立人口增长的差分方程组模型，据此推算人口总量和人口抚养比的变化趋势。结果表明：人口老龄化有一个极限，不会无限制地恶化下去。同时，我国生育率控制指标的最佳调节时机至少还要再等待20年．相当长的一段时期内仍须维持现行计划生育政策不变，稳定低生育率水平，积极应对人口老龄化。
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| 关 键 词： | 老龄化 人口抚养比 生育率 差分方程组 调节时机 |
Research on the Opportunity of Population Policy Adjustment in China |
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| XIE Ji＇,LI Chun-yanga,HU Dong-gang.Research on the Opportunity of Population Policy Adjustment in China[J].Northwest Population Journal,2013(6):25-28. |
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| Authors: | XIE Ji＇ LI Chun-yanga HU Dong-gang |
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| Institution: | 2 (1.The School of Statistics and Mathematics ,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan,430070;2.College of Science ,Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan , 4 30073 ; 3.Channgjiang River Valley Economic Institute, Wuhan Academy of Social Sciences, Wuhan , 4 30019 ) |
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| Abstract: | From research on dependency ratio to start, this paper sets up a module of difference equations on population growth, and calculates the change trend of population and dependency ratio. The result shows： there is limit to population ag- ing while it will not get worse indefinitely. The opportunity of population policy adjustment in China would arise ＇after at least 20 years, we should maintain the current family planning policy,low fertility rate within a long duration and deal with popula- tion aging actively. |
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| Keywords: | population aging dependency ratio fertility rate difference equations opportunity of adjustment |
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