预期组合:将不确定性纳入预期理论的新方法

不确定性是经济预期与决策的基本特征之一。然而现代预期理论尤其是理性预期学派,将不确定性视为影响理性预期的干扰因素,想方设法对其进行简化与排除。预期理论的反不确定性倾向与现代风险投资的实践发生了背离。通过对理性预期学派孤岛模型的预期决策检验,指出理性预期学派过于简化预期中不确定性的问题,提出了预期组合这一将不确定性纳入预期理论的新方法,探索如何在不确定条件下分析诸多不确定因素之间的逻辑关系,形成更加合理的预期,进而更早把握进行科学决策的机遇。

Expectation Combination:A New Method Through Including Uncertainty in Expectation Theory

Uncertainty is one of the primary characteristics of the economic expectation and decision.However,modern expectation school,in particular rational expectation school,deems uncertainty as a disturbing factor affecting the rational expectation and makes every effort to simplify and exclude it.This anti-uncertainty trend demonstrated from the expectation theory deviates from the practice of modern risk investment.This dissertation examines the expectation decision of the rational expectation school's isolated...