芜湖市城市化与房地产业发展关系的实证研究

城市化与房地产业发展是当前社会的热点问题。本文通过协整检验、Granger因果检验等计量方法对1991-2008年间芜湖市城市化进程与房地产业发展之间的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明：就长期而言,城市化与房地产业构成稳定的均衡关系;城市化对房地产投资具有较强的引擎作用,但是对房地产实际销售面积的影响并不明显;房地产业的发展对城市化进程的贡献有限。因此,必须正确认识城市化与房地产业的关系,采取各项措施改变目前靠房地产业带动城市化的模式。

Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Urbanization and Real Estate in Wuhu City

Urbanization and real estate is the current hot social issues.This paper,using date on urbanization and the real estate of Wuhu between 1991 and 2008,conducts co-integration and Granger causality test and uses other methods to measure the relationship between the process of urbanization and the real estate development.The results indicate that,for a long time,there is a stable balanced relationship between the process of urbanization and the real estate development;the process of urbanization can remarkably promote the real estate investment,while the engine role of urbanization on the actual sales area of real estate is not obvious;the contribution of real estate development to the urbanization process is limited.Therefore,it is necessary to correctly understand the relationship between the urbanization and the real estate,and adopt measures to change the present urbanization mode that excessively depends on real estate development.