何时方休?——中国老年人就业参与的队列分析

推迟退休年龄是应对人口老龄化的重要措施.利用第六次人口普查汇总数据,以40岁为年龄起点分析从中年到老年就业参与状况,并结合"五普"数据运用队列分析方法探讨老年人口就业状况的变化轨迹.结果显示,在法定退休年龄处,人口在业比例有一个明显的下降梯度,但法定退休年龄对老年群体的就业行为影响程度存在明显的城乡差异.城镇人口在业比例在50-60岁间明显下降,而农村人口在业比例下降则发生在60岁以后.此外,在业老年人口中超过80%为农村老年劳动力.虽然当前在农村地区并未实行退休制度,但农村养老金的发放以退休年龄为起点,因此,在调整退休年龄时需要特别关注农村老人,避免养老金的延迟发放使其陷入贫困和老无所依.

Elders Employment and Cohort Change

Postponing retirement age is an important measure to deal with population aging. This paper,by means of period comparison and cohort analysis,studies employment of elders and the change of employment under current retirement age from 2000 to 2010 census data. The results show that there is a significant decline in the proportion of the elderly population in the legal retirement age. The effect of retirement age on the employment behavior of the elderly is different between urban and rural areas,specifically,strong effect on urban elderly, while weak on rural. Although current retirement system in rural areas is not implemented, the release of rural pensions regards retirement age as a starting point. To adjust retirement age, it should pay special attention to the survival of rural elderly.