国际贸易、经济增长和CO2排放——基于我国省际面板数据的经验研究

贸易和环境间的关系研究已经成为学术界近来关注的焦点之一。早期的研究集中于经济增长和CO2排放之间关系的探讨。然而, 随着国际贸易的发展, 人们开始关注贸易在带来经济增长的同时是否也加剧了CO2的排放, 学者们在该领域的相关研究尚未得到一致的结论。围绕这一问题, 从区域的角度出发, 将我国划分为东部、中部、西部三个区域, 在环境库兹涅茨曲线基础上, 利用1995—2010年的省际面板数据对国际贸易、经济增长和CO2排放之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果显示:国际贸易对全国及东部的CO2排放具有显著的正向影响, 对中部和西部的这一影响在统计上不显著;东部、中部及全国较显著地存在CO2排放与经济增长的倒“U”形环境库兹涅茨曲线关系, 西部不存在这一特征。

International Trade, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions——An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data of Chinese Province-level

Relations between trade and environment have become an important topic in the academic domain. Formally, the research mainly focused on discussing the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions. With the development of international trade, the issue that whether international trade has brought more CO2 emissions as well as economic growth has aroused more and more attention. However, no consensual conclusion has been drawn on this issue. This paper discussed the questions from regional level. Firstly, we discerned three regional of China, that is, the east, middle and west. And then, by using panel data of 29 provinces of China during the period of 1995—2010, we examined the relations among international trade, economic growth and CO2 emissions based on Environmental Kuznets Curve Theory. The research results show that, international trade has significant positive effect on CO2 emissions in the East and in overall China while the effect is not significant in the Middle and in the West. Inverted “U” shape curve of CO2 emissions and economic growth occurs in the east, the middle and overall China significantly, while it does not occur in the west.