自然灾害国民财富损失研究

自然灾害所造成的经济影响, 其实不仅仅在于“直接经济损失”, 其归根结底造成的是“国民财富损失”。按照曾经提出的“基于国民财富视角的灾害经济成本分析框架”, 对1998年以来我国自然灾害所导致的国民财富损失进行了计算与分析。结果表明:(1)除了物质资本损失以外, 自然资本损失和人力资本损失同样不可小觑;(2)自然资本中耕地损失占了绝对比重;(3)即便仅仅依据劳动力对产出和经济增长的贡献来推算, 人力资本价值损失已经占到了整个国民财富损失的1/3左右;(4)从自然灾害国民财富损失的构成情况来看, 大部分时候物质财富损失都是主要的, 人力资本损失次之。因此, 我们认为应当以“模糊”的“正确”去取代“精确”的“错误”。

On the National Wealth Loss of Natural Disasters

The economic impact of natural disaster is not solely limited to direct economic losses. Natural disasters will lead to the loss of “national wealth” finally. In this paper, we calculated and analyzed the loss of national wealth since 1998 in accordance with the “disaster economic cost analysis framework based on national wealth”. The results showed that: first, besides corporeal capital losses, loss of natural capital and human capital loss also should not be ignored; second, farmland loss accounted for absolute gravity in natural capital; third, even if only on the basis of labor output and economic growth contribution to calculate the value of human capital loss, it has accounted for around 1/3 of the whole national wealth loss; at last, most of the time material wealth loss is the main loss from the perspective of the loss structure, and the next is the human capital loss. Therefore, we should take “fuzzy” “right” to replace the “exact” “error”.