Problems in the Perinatal Prediction of Child Abuse

Summary The aim of this paper is to consider and comment criticallyupon the recommendation by some eminent authorities that effortsbe made to design and implement procedures to predict the abuseof children. My view is that this move toward prediction—‘sponsored’largely by American paediatricians—is less of a new departurethan an extension of the dominant conceptual tradition wherebychild abuse is seen as analogous to a disease. However, in spiteof its basis in a medical model, it is clear that the idea thatthe abuse of children can be accurately predicted has greatappeal for many social workers. I shall argue, however, thatserious obstacles stand in the way of prediction; that theseobstacles are insufficiently appreciated by the advocates ofprediction; and that—consequently—social workers(and others) should temper with scepticism their enthusiasmfor these developments.