贵州省退耕还林地经济收益预测

退耕还林工程的可持续性,也就是该工程是否能达到预期的目标,关键要看农民是否能减弱或者摆脱对土地的依赖。而退耕还林地的未来收益将是退耕农户未来收入的组成部分,这将直接影响退耕还林后续政策的制定。因此,对退耕还林地未来收益的预测是后续政策研究的基础之一。该文在对贵州省进行实地调研的基础上,以马尾松林和核桃林分别作为生态林和经济林的代表,对其不同年份的净收益进行了预期,在此基础上,通过与退耕还林机会成本的比较,得出马尾松和核桃种植农户的收益情况。通过计算,得出对贵州省退耕还林的农户,至少是对还生态林的农户来说,现行补助年限过短的结论。

Income Forecasting of Returned-farmland in Guizhou Province

The sustainability of Grain for Green Project(GGP) is the anticipated goal of this project.The key is whether the farmers can weaken or get rid of the dependence on the land.And income of the returned land is a part of farmers' total income.So,income forecasting of returned land is one of the bases of coming policy research.Based on the investigation and research, the Masson pine and Walnut are choosed as representatives of ecological forest and production forest.Then this paper forecasts their net income in different years and compares with the opportunity cost.The conclusion is: the present subsidy term is reasonable for the production forest returner and is too short for the ecological forest.