1974-1990年德国货币政策独立性与有效性检验

对德国1974—1990年间德国货币政策在浮动汇率制度下的独立性和有效性进行了检验。格兰杰因果检验的结果表明,德国货币政策在考察期间只是部分独立的,而误差修正模型的结果则显示其货币政策是有效的。由此得出结论和启示,有效的货币政策不一定独立,一国货币当局货币政策的选择,不应以货币政策是否独立作为判定标准,而应以是否对经济调节有效,是否能促进一国经济长期稳定增长为准绳。

An Examination on Independence and Effectiveness of Germany' s Monetary Policy in 1974-1990

This paper examines the independence and effectiveness of Germany's monetary policy in 1974-1990 under the floating exchange rate system.The Granger causality test indicates its partial independence during that period and the VEC model test shows its effectiveness.Hence,it draws a conclusion that the effective monetary policy is not always independent,which provides enlightenment for currency authorities in policy-making choices that monetary policy independence should not be the criteria.Instead,whether it is effective in economic regulation and whether it can promote the long-term stable economic growth should be the criteria.