中国货币政策产业非均衡效应实证研究

 本文采集中国1999—2011年季度数据，构建由不同产业GDP、外汇储备、CPI、不同货币政策中介目标组成的四元SVAR模型系列，测算出不同货币政策冲击对不同产业的具体效应。结果发现：（1）综合渠道冲击的作用力度最大，时滞最短；信贷渠道冲击的作用力度和时滞适中；利率渠道冲击的作用力度最小，时滞最长。（2）在信贷传导渠道乃至综合传导渠道中，第二产业的反应力度最大，第一产业次之，第三产业最小；而在利率传导渠道中，第二产业的反应力度最大，第三产业次之，第一产业最小。（3）不同产业对不同货币政策冲击反应时滞的长短差别较为一致。第三产业最短，第二产业次之，第一产业最长。上述结论对相关政策操作和管理具有重要的启发意义。

Positive Research on Unbalanced Effects of Monetary Policy on Chinese Industries

The paper constructs a SVAR model set, including four variables of industrial GDP, foreign exchange reserves, consumer price index and intermediary target of monetary policy and measures the effects of different monetary policy shocks on industries by using China quarterly data from 1999 to 2011. It is concluded that: ①The strength and time lag of shock from composite channel is strongest and shortest, while the credit channel shock is medium and moderate, and the interest rate channel shock is weakest and longest. ②In credit channel and even composite channel, response of secondary industry is strongest, primary industry is the next one and tertiary industry is weakest. Whereas in interest rate channel the secondary industry ranks first, the tertiary industry and the primary industry is the second and the third respectively. ③The response time lag differences of three industries to different monetary policy shocks is more consistent. The shortest is tertiary industry and primary industry is longest. The conclusions above have revelation significances for policy operation and management.