中国教育收益率的长期变动趋势分析

本研究采用中国健康与营养调查1989-2009年的追踪数据,使用多层线性交互分类模型估计了全国教育收益率的总体变化趋势,并通过引入宏观经济发展指标来考察教育收益率变化的影响因素.结果表明,21世纪以来全国教育收益率并没有延续以往快速稳定增长的势头,中国市场转型过程中的制度变革和经济结构变化对教育收益率的变动都有显著影响.由于我国城乡分割的二元经济结构,本研究还比较了城镇和农村地区教育收益率变动趋势的差异,农村地区教育收益率先高后低反映了我国先农村后城市的改革开放进程.

The Long-term Trends in Rates of Returns to Education in China

The level of market transition of China could be reflected by the long-term trends in rates of returns to education. By making use of panel data collected by CHNS project from 1989 to 2009, this study applied cross-classified multilevel model to estimate the trend of national rates of returns to education, and take macro economic development index into consideration to study the factors influencing the rate of return to education change. The results indicated that, since the beginning of this century, the national education rate did not extend the rapid and stable growth, and the institutional changes and economic development had significant effects on the change in rates of returns to education. Due to China’s urban-rural split dual economic structure , it compares the differences of returns to education between rural and urban in China. The return to education in rural areas is from high to low, which reflects the “ first rural then urban” process of reform and opening up.