| 基于灰色理论的京津冀老龄化趋势对比及老龄产业发展对策研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王爱峰,董尧.基于灰色理论的京津冀老龄化趋势对比及老龄产业发展对策研究[J].河北工程大学学报(社会科学版),2022,39(1):14-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王爱峰 董尧 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北工程大学 管理工程与商学院,河北 邯郸056038 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省社科基金（编号:HB17YJ037） |
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| 摘 要： | 我国人口老龄化趋势已经日臻明显，但不同地区老龄化进程、特征存在差异。在京津冀地区协同发展的背景下，该文选取京津冀三个地区的人口结构面板数据，首先利用GM(1，1)模型分别对未来十年人口老龄化的趋势进行预测，数据显示河北省老龄化速度明显超过京津地区，其次从三地历年人口年龄结构、抚养比、可支配收入等方面进行对比分析，最后对河北省老龄化的应对和老龄产业发展提出建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口老龄化 GM(1 1)模型 京津冀地区 老龄产业 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/1/9 0:00:00 |
Comparison of Aging Trends in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Research on the Development Countermeasures of Aging Industry from the Perspective of Grey Theory |
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| Authors: | WANG Aifeng and DONG Yao |
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| Institution: | School of Management Engineering and Business, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, Hebei 056038, China and School of Management Engineering and Business, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, Hebei 056038, China |
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| Abstract: | The trend of population aging in China has become increasingly obvious, but there are differences in terms of the process and characteristics of aging in different regions. Under the background of the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the population structure panel data of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei was selected in this paper.Firstly, GM (1,1) model was used to predict the population aging trend in the next decade. The data showed that the aging speed of Hebei Province is significantly higher than that of Beijing and Tianjin.Secondly, the population age structure, dependency ratio, and disposable income were compared and analyzed on a yearly basis, respectively.Finally, it puts forward some suggestions on the response to aging and the development of aging industry in Hebei Province. |
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| Keywords: | ageing of population GM (1 1) model Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region aging industry |
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