金融压抑、信贷结构与滞涨效应

卡瓦诺等经济学家认为由于发展中国家普遍存在金融压抑现象,银行信贷成为企业运营资本的主要来源,而紧缩的货币政策通过减少企业的信贷供给,在短期内会产生滞涨现象,即存在卡瓦诺效应。为此,构建一个非均衡的理论模型,并用SUR模型对中国的数据进行实证研究,结果表明:卡瓦诺效应在中国同样是存在的,信贷结构对滞涨效应的大小有着明显的影响,而且控制信贷规模比提高存款准备金率的滞涨效应更为显著。

Financial Repression,Loan Structure and Stagflation Effect

Cavallo and other economists beheve that because o1 tlae financial repression prevatent m developing countries, bank credit become the main source of working capital. So the tightening of monetary policy by reducing the corporate credit supply in the short term will produce stagflation phenomenon, namely the Cavallo effect. This article builds a disequilibrium model, and SUR model is used to take empirical research of China data. It is found that Cavallo effect is also applicable in China, and the structure of loan has a significant impact on stagflation. In addition, the effect of loan scale is more significant than deposit reserve ratio. The article also put forward policy recommendations on the proper implementation of the monetary policy to improve the effects of monetary policies.