中国生猪养殖业规模化影响因素研究

在中国农业产业中,养殖业率先进入规模化发展阶段。基于1998-2011年省际面板数据,运用FGLS法考察生猪养殖规模化的决定因素,发现技术进步、规模经济效益、饲料加工业发育、城乡猪肉消费、交通条件、劳动力非农化、劳动力文化水平以及财政支持政策对规模化具有显著影响。进一步利用回归分解法识别关键因子,结果表明,规模化发展主要取决于四股力量,其中市场拉力是主要的源动力,而交通条件和劳动力文化素质则是重要支撑力,生产扶持政策也形成一定推力,四者的贡献率分别为27%、19%、10%和3%。

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Pig Livestock Intensification in China

Livestock has first entered scale development phase in Chinas agricultural industries. Based on provincial panel data, this article uses FGLS method to investigate influential factors of intensification in pig production. The results show that technical progress, scale economies effect, the scale of feed processing industry, pork consumption, traffic conditions, transfer of agricultural labor force, education level of labor, as well as support policies for pig production have significant impacts on pig formalization cultivation level. We further use regression-based decomposition method to measure the contribution of each factor and find that large-scale development depends primarily on the pull of market, traffic conditions, education level of the labor force, and the push of policy.