自由贸易协定对我国农产品的贸易效应研究——基于PSM法

文章运用控制选择偏差的倾向得分匹配法(PSM)分析了自由贸易协定(FTA)对我国农产品的贸易效应。为了提高估计结果的稳健性,运用2015年和2017年的横截面数据先分析了与我国签订自由贸易协定影响因素,其中,一国的人均GDP水平、总人口以及贸易平衡均为正向影响因素。以及2015年之后,我国越来越偏向于与地理位置较为相近的国家签订FTA。其次,分析了2015年和2017年FTA处理效果的差异,FTA对我国农产品的贸易效应略有不同,具体取决于所采用的匹配方法。但是,所有估计的平均处理效果值(ATT)的影响均是正向的,说明FTA对我国农产品存在贸易创造效应。

Research on the Trade Effect of FTA on China's Agricultural Products

This paper analyzes the trade effect of free trade agreements on China''s agricultural products by using propensity score matching method (PSM). In order to improve the robustness of the estimation results, the cross-sectional data of 2015 and 2017 are used to analyze the factors affecting the free trade agreement (FTA) with China, in which the per capita GDP level, total population and trade balance of a country are positive influencing factors. And after 2015, China is increasingly biased towards signing FTAs with countries with similar geographical locations. Secondly, the differences in FTA treatment effects between 2015 and 2017 are analyzed. The trade effect of FTA on China''s agricultural products is slightly different, depending on the matching method used. However, the impact of all estimated average treatment effect values (ATT) is positive, indicating that FTA has a trade creation effect on China''s agricultural products.